Monday, September 23, 2024

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Insights from The Associated Press

As an extension of API and AP’s webinar series to support news organizations’ evolving needs when covering local elections and democracy, The Associated Press is taking over this month’s Need to Know Special Edition to share what they take into consideration when reporting on election results, misinformation, polling and more. Want to hear more? Register for the final webinar in our series to learn about AP's vote count operation and approach to election coverage on Sept. 26.

How to report on polls and surveys

In a world increasingly defined by the pace of change, citizens, policymakers and business leaders alike need ever more timely and reliable information upon which to base their decisions. But news organizations should consider where public opinion research comes from before they report on it.

For example, the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research taps into the power of social science research and the highest-quality journalism to bring key information to people across the nation and throughout the world.

The AP is an independent global news organization dedicated to factual reporting. NORC at the University of Chicago is an objective and non-partisan research institution that delivers reliable data and rigorous analysis to guide critical programmatic, business and policy decisions.

Read the AP Stylebook entry on polling and surveys [password is Democracy2024]

By pairing the research rigor of NORC with the journalistic independence and global media reach of The Associated Press, The AP-NORC Center gathers, analyzes and disseminates data with unmatched speed, precision and clarity. The center informs public policy debates as they are taking place and contributes to the informed electorate every democracy needs to function properly.

Below are examples of how The AP reports on survey results, as well as a checklist of how to determine whether a poll is suitable for publication.

Recent findings from AP-NORC 

» Majority of US adults say democracy is on the ballot but they differ on the threat

Roughly 3 in 4 American adults believe the upcoming presidential election is vital to the future of U.S. democracy, although which candidate they think poses the greater threat depends on their political leanings, according to a recent poll.

This survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that most Democrats, Republicans and independents see the election as “very important” or “extremely important” to democracy, while Democrats have a higher level of intensity about the issue.

More than half of Democrats say the November election is “extremely important” to the future of U.S. democracy, compared to about 4 in 10 independents and Republicans.

» Yes, we’re divided. But Americans still agree on most core American values
Despite the country’s deep political polarization, most Americans share many core beliefs about what it means to be an American.

This poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults say the right to vote, the right to equal protection under the law and the right to privacy are extremely important or very important to the United States’ identity as a nation. The survey also found that 84% feel the same way about the freedom of religion.

The results, which included perspectives on a number of different freedoms and rights, have only small variances between Republicans and Democrats except on the right to bear arms, which Republicans are more likely to see as core to the nation’s identity. The overall findings are striking because they come at a time of extreme partisanship when political agreements seem rare and concerns are heightened over the potential for violence during a volatile presidential election year.

» Most don't trust AI-powered information
A majority of Americans don't trust generative artificial intelligence models to give them accurate answers.

A survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts reveals that even as Americans have started using generative AI-fueled chatbots and search engines in their personal and work lives, most have remained skeptical of these rapidly advancing technologies.

That's particularly true when it comes to information about high-stakes events such as elections.

Tips from the AP Stylebook: Polls and surveys

Reporting on public opinion research requires rigorous inspection of a poll’s methodology, provenance and results. The mere existence of a poll is not enough to make it news. Do not feel obligated to report on a poll or survey simply because it meets AP’s standards.

Poll results that seek to preview the outcome of an election must never be the lead, headline or single subject of any story. Preelection horse race polling can and should inform reporting on political campaigns, but no matter how good the poll or how wide a candidate’s margin, results of preelection polls always reflect voter opinion before all ballots are cast. Voter opinions can change before Election Day, and they often do.

When evaluating a poll or survey, be it an election poll or a survey on a topic unrelated to politics, the key question to answer is: Are its results likely to accurately reflect the opinion of the group being surveyed?

Generally, for the answer to be yes, a poll must:

✅ Disclose the questions asked, the results of the survey and the method in which it was conducted.

✅ Come from a source without a stake in the outcome of its results.

✅ Be representative of the population surveyed, usually by randomly sampling from that population and appropriately correcting for the fact that some types of people are more likely to respond to polls than others. ✅ Report the results in a timely manner.

Polls that pass these tests are suitable for publication.

Do not report on surveys in which the pollster or sponsor of research refuses to provide the information needed to make these assessments. In stories relying heavily on the results of a poll, always include a short description of how that poll meets the standards, allowing readers and viewers to evaluate the results for themselves: The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,020 adults from Dec. 7-11 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.

The Associated Press helps local news organizations contextualize the election coverage through localization guides — insights from AP reporters to help situate local stories in the national context. Read more about AP's standards and style on polling here [password is Democracy2024]. 

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